The Combustion Engine Business Model in the Age of Electromobility

For this study, a comprehensive market model was used to examine which global market shares and profits manufacturers can secure with different electrification strategies. The study was based on three scenarios for the ramp-up of electromobility: a basic scenario according to the manufacturers' forecasts and one scenario each for a slower and an accelerated development.

Six different types of manufacturers served as case studies: from European premium manufacturers to volume manufacturers from Europe, the USA and Asia (with or without a focus on electromobility) to traditional Chinese manufacturers. Data on profit increases and losses in the study refer to the discounted cumulative profit until 2040; compared to a scenario in which the ramp-up of electromobility develops as currently forecast and the manufacturer is neither a pioneer nor a laggard in electromobility.

Boston Consulting Group (BCG) was commissioned by Agora Verkehrswende to work on the study.