Why Africa could leapfrog the combustion engine
A growing number of African countries are switching from combustion engines to electric motors. With the requisite investments, Germany can support this development and at the same time establish a promising market for resilient supply chains – for mutual benefit.
By Naville Geiriseb, international cooperation project manager at Agora Verkehrswende and Christian Hochfeld, director of Agora Verkehrswende
Africa is the continent of future growth – including in road transport. The current low motorisation rate (42 motor vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants) is predicted to increase tenfold in the next 20 years. The continent's automotive market has so far been characterised by used vehicles imported from other parts of the world. However, the global boom in electric mobility offers these countries the opportunity to use their own resources, build up an automotive industry and drive transformative economic growth in the future.
Africa could leapfrog fossil-fueled internal combustion engines and move directly into an era of climate-neutral mobility. Electric vehicles are already becoming increasingly common in Africa’s cities. In public transport, more and more electric motorcycles, and particularly electric buses, are finding their way onto the roads. Africa's first fully solar-powered Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system began operating this year in Dakar, Senegal. Nairobi, Cairo, Kigali and Cape Town have introduced e-buses, and pilot projects are planned in Lagos and Johannesburg.
E-mobility offers economic opportunities
A reduced dependence on fuel imports would be an important advantage for many of these countries. Ethiopia's annual fuel imports are estimated at USD 5 billion, Nigeria's at USD 3.7 billion (2024) and Kenya's at USD 4.8 billion (2023). The local cost of mobility is well above the global average. This evidently slows down economic growth.
Governments across Africa are increasingly seeking to create value in their own countries. Zimbabwe, Namibia, Ghana and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have banned the export of raw minerals in the past two years. The DRC has over 50 percent of the world's cobalt reserves, Zimbabwe has 1.2 percent of the world's lithium reserves and South Africa has over 95 percent of the platinum reserves. These raw minerals are essential for the production of batteries for electric vehicles.
Companies and governments are taking the initiative
The number of middle-class African households has tripled since 2000 and they are expected to make up over 40 percent of households by 2060. With requisite investments, electric vehicles could outnumber combustion-engine vehicles in record time. Uganda’s state-owned company Kiira Motors has been manufacturing electric vehicles since 2011. Kenyan company Basigo, launched in 2022, has set up an assembly plant for 30 electric buses. Volkswagen, BYD and Ford are greenlighting investments in electric vehicle production in the region. The African Continental Free Trade Area will soon be the largest free trade area in the world, and it promises to develop into a flourishing market.
More and more countries are creating legal frameworks for electric mobility. Seven of these have reduced import duties for electric vehicles to between zero and 25 percent and have set long-term goals for the transition to electric mobility. Ghana, Mauritius, Morocco and Rwanda are aiming for electric vehicle shares of between 10 and 30 percent by 2030, while Uganda and Cape Verde have set a target of 100 percent electric vehicles after 2035. At the beginning of 2024, Ethiopia banned the import of new and used combustion engine vehicles; in Rwanda, no new motorcycles with combustion engines can be registered for commercial public transport from January 2025.
Germany a partner in transformation
For an automotive powerhouse like Germany, Africa's emerging electric mobility market offers countless opportunities. The financing requirements for the transformation to climate-neutral technologies in Africa are enormous, and industrialised countries like Germany also have a responsibility to invest in a more sustainable future together with partners from Africa. At the German-African Business Summit (GABS), held in Nairobi in early December 2024, the focus was on hydrogen, renewable energies and the migration of skilled workers. Electric mobility should not be missing from the agenda at such events. Although VW announced the resumption of the local assembly of combustion engine, electric and hybrid vehicles in Kenya by the end of this year, the fundamental importance of electric mobility for Africa was not discussed at the event.
Germany will not have the chance for much longer to support the development of resilient supply chains and the production of electric vehicles locally – to the benefit of both sides. Through government-to-government partnerships and appropriate incentives, the German government can strengthen the confidence of its industry and encourage companies to invest and engage in collaborative projects. It is also important to act quickly. The window will soon close for those who believe that the African continent will remain a grateful customer for used and new combustion vehicles for decades to come.
The article first appeared as a viewpoint in Africa.Table from Table.Media on 17 December 2024.
