Powering the Automotive Jobs of the Future

A range of factors are already changing vehicle manufacturing and employment in the automotive sector, and will do so even more intensely in the future, including networked and self-driving vehicles, integrated mobility systems, more stringent climate protection regulations and productivity enhancements for Industry 4.0.

In fact, the size of the workforce on the whole is likely to grow slightly (+25,000 jobs). However, this net figure conceals large changes within individual subsectors. Especially in traditional automobile manufacturing, we anticipate a strong reduction in employment (-180,000 jobs). Upstream suppliers of non-powertrain-specific parts will benefit in particular from battery production (+95,000 jobs). In addition, numerous jobs related to the electric-vehicle charging infrastructure will be created (+70,000 jobs).

The transformation of the automotive sector will create some 260,000 new jobs, especially in battery production, software development and charging-infrastructure operations. Taking personnel needs arising from retirement and employee turnover into account, more than 800,000 new positions will need to be filled before 2030. This is nearly 50 % higher than the equivalent figure from the past ten years. At the same time, many jobs will undergo changes or be eliminated altogether. Almost 760,000 workers need to retrain, and the retraining needs for one-third of these workers are significant.

While the size of the automotive workforce in 2030 will be similar to that in 2019 in most areas of Germany, East German states are anticipated to see a 9 % increase (+16,000 jobs). This is predominantly attributable to decisions regarding the location of battery cell production.

In order to create jobs and manage changes in affected regions, policy­makers should provide targeted support to companies. At the same time, it is important to ensure that Germany remains attractive as a location for investment in new productive capacities. Access to venture capital and skilled workers is essential for new firms to take root. In addition, the public and private sectors should collaborate to retrain workers with outmoded skill profiles. Strategic support for transformation is indispensable at the state and federal levels.