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E-fuels will be indispensable for the foreseeable future to advance climate protection in aviation and maritime transport as well as in parts of the chemicals industry.
At the same time, they are expensive and less energy efficient, and, in all likelihood, will only be available in very limited quantities over the next few decades. Accordingly, e-fuels must be produced and used in a targeted manner. More specifically, they should be prioritized for segments of the transport sector that lack battery-electric alternatives, mainly aviation and maritime transport.
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Policymakers across the globe should facilitate a market ramp-up of e-fuels in transport by adopting suitable political and regulatory frameworks.
Far from relying on individual measures, policymakers should strive to adopt comprehensive regulatory packages that target actors throughout the fuel supply chain. The coordinated introduction of such measures in numerous countries would help to reduce the risk of market fragmentation and carbon leakage. Accordingly, international cooperation on e-fuel investment and regulatory policy is essential.
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The development of comprehensive sustainability criteria for e-fuels – and not just for hydrogen –
is essential for their socially and environmentally sound production and use.
The following principles should apply to international cooperation, standards, and certification systems: (1) The supply of renewable electricity to the domestic economy and population should have priority over the production of e-fuels for export; (2) e-fuel projects should rely exclusively on additional renewable energy capacity that is developed as a supplement to domestic renewable needs; (3) such supplemental capacity should be developed in a manner that supports local infrastructure expansion and economic development; and (4) renewable electricity should be used as efficiently as possible in e-fuel production countries, with priority given to direct electric applications, such as electric vehicles.
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A sole focus on “sweet spot” regions that offer particularly beneficial conditions for e-fuel production is insufficient; rather, an overarching strategy that addresses all major dimensions of e-fuel production is needed.
An effective strategy for ramping up e-fuel production must consider not just the need to secure ample renewables generation but also the sustainable sourcing of carbon as well as viable models for project financing. Attention must also be given to steering the production and use of e-fuels in a manner that serves climate policy goals. The establishment of robust international standards will play an important role in this regard.
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Once the political frameworks for e-fuels are in place, it will fall to industry and investors to rapidly
expand the supply of e-fuels for essential applications.
Projected global e-SAF production in 2030 correspond to around 3% of the EU’s current jet fuel demand, while projected e-methanol production in 2030 is equivalent to 5% of European marine fuel demand. Accordingly, for meaningful decarbonization in the subsectors of aviation and maritime transport, it is necessary not only to realize all currently announced projects but also significantly expand the number of large-scale projects in the development pipeline.
This content is also available in: German
E-fuels: Separating the substance from the hype
How electricity-based synthetic fuels can contribute to the energy transition in transport
Preface
For some years now, experts have been intensively discussing the extent to which fossil fuels can be replaced by renewable synthetic fuels. Research has focused mainly on applications for which there are currently no battery-electric alternatives, i. e. primarily air and sea transport. This focus is necessary because e-fuels will remain an expensive and rare commodity for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, in the domain of road transport, electric vehicles are already significantly more energy-efficient than combustion cars, cost competitive, and widely available. Accordingly, while e-fuels can serve as a supplement to the direct use of renewable electricity, they are not an equivalent alternative. Even when e-fuel production in “sweet spot” regions with highly favourable production conditions is presumed, energy efficiency and sustainability will need to remain a top priority.
In this discussion paper, we summarize the current state of scientific knowledge regarding the potential offered by e-fuels. Compared to the German version of this paper that appeared in autumn 2023, we have added a new chapter on e-fuel policies in selected countries, and have generally expanded the paper’s international perspective. Our aim is to provide an evidence-based foundation for current policy debates. If policymakers wish to ramp up global e-fuel production, then associated decisions must be made over the near term based on an internationally concerted strategy that is informed by clear priorities. To this end, it is crucial to distinguish between viable options and mere wishful thinking – that is, to separate the substance from the hype.
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E-fuels: Separating the substance from the hype
How electricity-based synthetic fuels can contribute to the energy transition in transport
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Final energy consumption by sect or, mode of transport and energy source in the EU (2019)
From E-fuels: Separating the substance from the hype on page 1
Final energy consumption by sect or, mode of transport and energy source in the EU (2019)
From E-fuels: Separating the substance from the hype on page 1
